飞行安全的针对性评估

根据飞行员执行新的或特殊任务的需要,在研制飞行安全评估系统时,设置了针对性评估模块.运用层析分析法(AHP)确定了针对性评估模块与一般性评估模块的权重关系.根据飞行安全理论确定了一般性评估简捷方法的因素、要素及量化数据;根据层析分析法、基元事件分析法确定了针对性评估模块的结构和因素的权重,采用基元事件分析法、飞行法规分析和调查研究相结合的方法,对针对性评估的要素进行了量化.最后针对具体事例做了评估计算.研究表明,当针对性评估的安全度小于90%时,应引起足够的警觉,采取必要的措施.     

Macroinvertebrate Responses to Constructed Riffles in the Cache River,Illinois, USA

Stream restoration practices are becoming increasingly common, but biological assessments of these improvements are still limited. Rock weirs, a type of constructed riffle, were implemented in the upper Cache River in southern Illinois, USA, in 2001 and 2003–2004 to control channel incision and protect high quality riparian wetlands as part of an extensive watershed-level restoration. Construction of the rock weirs provided an opportunity to examine biological responses to a common in-stream restoration technique. We compared macroinvertebrate assemblages on previously constructed rock weirs and newly constructed weirs to those on snags and scoured clay streambed, the two dominant substrates in the unrestored reaches of the river. We quantitatively sampled macroinvertebrates on these substrates on seven occasions during 2003 and 2004. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) biomass and aquatic insect biomass were significantly higher on rock weirs than the streambed for most sample periods. Snags supported intermediate EPT and aquatic insect biomass compared to rock weirs and the streambed. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordinations for 2003 and 2004 revealed distinct assemblage groups for rock weirs, snags, and the streambed. Analysis of similarity supported visual interpretation of NMDS plots. All pair-wise substrate comparisons differed significantly, except recently constructed weirs versus older weirs. Results indicate positive responses by macroinvertebrate assemblages to in-stream restoration in the Cache River. Moreover, these responses were not evident with more common measures of total density, biomass, and diversity.     

Physicochemical substance properties as indicators for unreliable exposure in microplate-based bioassays

In the last years many efforts were made to transform standardized algal test protocols into low-cost microplate assays. While advantages were pointed out frequently, limitations are not systematically addressed, thus hindering a widespread utilisation. In this study a group of organic substances with a wide distribution of volatility (log K_AW from −6.53 to −2.13) and lipophilicity (log K_OW from 1.26 to 4.92) was investigated with respect to the influence of these physicochemical properties on their algal toxicity in different assays. Therefore the EC₅₀ values were determined with a microplate assay based on ISO 8692 protocol and the results were compared with those of an established algal growth inhibition test conducted in air tight glass vessels. Using the ratio of the EC₅₀ values, a clear connection between biological response and volatility as well as lipophilicity of test substances could be detected. Chemicals with a log K_OW higher than 3 or a Henry coefficient log K_AW higher than −4 were identified as less effective in the microplate assay than in the comparative assay. The loss in nominal concentration due to physicochemical properties could be shown to contribute to this using HPLC analysis. Consequently, when using microplate assay’s one should be aware that lipophilic and volatile chemicals might be underestimated in their toxicity, which could be indicated from evaluating related physicochemical properties modelled from structural information prior to an experimental investigation.     

基于GIS/AHP集成的洪水灾害综合风险评价——以淮河流域为例

根据影响洪水灾害风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性与承灾体易损性,以淮河流域为示范研究区,以县为行政单元,综合考虑降雨、径流量、河流、地形、人口、经济等指标,基于GIS与AHP集成方法得到了淮河流域洪水灾害危险性评价图和淮河流域洪水灾害脆弱性评价图,并采用"加"模型计算公式得到了洪水灾害综合风险评价图,进行了相应的结果分析。     

道路交叉口冲突仿真分析

针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。     

Convergence or divergence in desertification risk? Scale-based assessment and policy implications in a Mediterranean country

This paper explores changes (1990–2000) in two environmental indexes with the aim of providing empirical evidence on regional and local convergence in an increasing-impact phenomenon such as Land Degradation (LD) in Italy. Convergence analysis for ESAI (Environmental Sensitive Area Index) and LVI (Land Vulnerability Index) was developed at five different geographical scales. Results indicate that territorial disparities in land vulnerability tend to increase during the investigated period following a defined spatial pattern that depends on land quality, the environmental context and the economic performance of regional systems. Finally, the implications this process has on policy strategies aimed at mitigating desertification risk are discussed.     

地震灾害综合应急能力评估研究

汶川大地震在给我国带来巨大的悲痛和损失的同时，也检验了我国政府的突发事件应急能力。此次抗震救灾凸显出我国地震灾害应急能力存在的一些不足。建立“突发事件综合应急能力评估指标体系”的目的是为了评估政府的突发事件应急能力，以评促建。地震灾害由于其不同于其它突发事件的特性，其应急管理也有其特定的内容。现以地震灾害特征为标准，选取13个省市为样本，套用已有评估指标体系，分析和评估我国地震灾害应急能力。研究认为，我国应加强地震灾害应急能力建设，同时认为已有评估指标体系能满足使用要求。     

城市空气质量综合评价的可拓方法

可拓方法是从定性和定量两个角度去处理现实世界中矛盾问题的一种新方法 ,它能较完整地反映事物的综合质量水平。本文介绍了可拓评价方法的基本原理 ,并探讨了该方法在城市空气质量综合评价中的应用 ,结果表明是合理可行的     

基于数量化理论Ⅱ的鄂西北山区坡面土壤侵蚀强度评价

水土流失既是资源问题，又是生态环境问题。土壤侵蚀对人类生存和发展构成了严重威胁，成为制约可持续发展的障碍因素。以鄂西北丹江口库区郧西县坡面径流小区为试验点，通过分析小区的实地观测数据，建立坡面土壤侵蚀定性评价指标体系，并将数量化理论II作为有效的数学方法，建立郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型，对参与建立模型的样本进行回归分析，其准判率达到800%以上，并且利用该模型对其他年份坡面土壤侵蚀强度实测数据进行对比验证，得到土壤侵蚀强度分级的精度较高。研究表明，建立的郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型有较好的适用性与可靠性，可为郧西县及类似自然地理环境的其他区域水保工作起到一定指导意义